By: Jerome Brookshire

Governor Kathy Hochul may be heading into stormy political waters as a slim majority of New York voters now say they want a new governor in 2026, according to a newly released Siena College poll, reported in depth by Spectrum News 1. The survey offers a nuanced look into the governor’s approval ratings, favorability, and potential electoral challenges — painting a portrait of a leader whose support remains steady, but shallow.

According to the Siena poll, only 36% of voters currently support reelecting Hochul, while 55% would prefer “someone else” to lead the Empire State. That represents a 10-point decline from April, suggesting growing restlessness across the electorate — particularly among Republicans and independents. As the Spectrum News 1 report highlighted, this erosion of support comes even as Hochul’s approval rating stands at 50-46%, up slightly from last month’s 48-45%.

“After hitting year-long highs in both Hochul’s favorability and job approval ratings last month, those numbers largely held constant this month,” said Siena pollster Steven Greenberg in a statement reported by Spectrum News 1. “But Republicans — already deeply negative toward Hochul — have become even more so.”

The poll, conducted between May 12–15, shows partisan polarization sharpening, with 82% of Republicans — up from 68% in April — and 64% of independents preferring a new face for governor. Among Democrats, Hochul retains slim majority support, with 51% saying they would vote to reelect her.

Despite this, Hochul maintains a commanding lead over her potential Democratic primary rivals, including Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado and Bronx Rep. Ritchie Torres, both of whom are still relatively unknown among voters. According to Spectrum News 1, 46% of Democrats back Hochul, compared to 12% for Delgado and 10% for Torres — numbers that underscore her advantage as the incumbent, even if lukewarm.

“Not surprisingly, they both continue to trail Hochul by a large margin — and by virtually every demographic — when Democrats are asked to choose next year’s gubernatorial nominee,” Greenberg said.

On the GOP side, the poll shows Rep. Elise Stefanik as the early frontrunner in a hypothetical primary, garnering 35% support compared to 22% for Rep. Mike Lawler and 11% for Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman.

As Spectrum News 1 notes, Stefanik, who recently expressed interest in running after her UN ambassador nomination fell through, enjoys a two-to-one favorable rating among Republicans (45-22%), despite a negative 25-35% rating statewide. Lawler and Blakeman remain relatively unknown, with “break-even” favorability scores.

“When Stefanik was not included last month, Blakeman had a narrow lead over Lawler,” Greenberg said, pointing to the volatility of the GOP field.

Voters expressed cautious optimism about the newly passed state budget, particularly regarding measures aimed at affordability. According to Spectrum News 1, 37% of respondents said inflation rebate checks, middle-class tax cuts, and free public school meals would help “somewhat,” while 26% said “not very much” and 17% said “not at all.”

Despite divided views on the overall efficacy of the budget, three provisions received overwhelming bipartisan support: Free public school meals: supported by more than 90% of Democrats, nearly 75% of independents, and two-thirds of Republicans.

Restricting smartphone use in K-12 classrooms: backed by 66% of Democrats, 67% of independents, and 68% of Republicans.

Easier cancellation of subscriptions: supported by over three-quarters of voters across all parties.

“These are rare bipartisan bright spots,” Spectrum News 1 noted, reflecting some unity in an otherwise polarized electorate.

The poll also probed voter sentiment on one of the most contentious cultural issues in education: transgender girls’ participation in girls’ school sports. A plurality of 46% say all school districts should ban transgender girls from playing on girls’ teams. Only 22% support allowing them in all districts, while 23% believe the decision should be left to each district.

According to Spectrum News 1, views are highly polarized by party:  68% of Republicans and 54% of independents favor a ban.

Democrats are closely split, with 32% supporting a ban and 31% supporting full inclusion.

Age is also a factor, with voters over 55 more likely to favor a ban (54%), while voters under 35 are evenly divided.

On the national stage, the poll revealed that President Donald Trump’s favorability in New York stands at 38-59%, down slightly from April’s 40-55%. His job approval sits at 40-57%.

As Spectrum News 1 reported, Trump remains popular with Republicans (79% favorable) and deeply unpopular with Democrats (82% unfavorable), while independents remain closely divided.

Voters are also split on congestion pricing, an issue where Gov. Hochul and Trump offer conflicting visions. Hochul has argued it should remain in place as it’s beginning to work, while Trump has labeled it an unfair tax. Currently, 41% support eliminating it, compared to 39% who support keeping it — a modest increase in support since March.

However, a broader 46-36% margin agrees with Hochul’s stance that the state should continue to fight federal opposition to the program, showing some resilience in her urban support base.

The poll also addressed immigration enforcement, with 45% of voters saying New York should support federal deportation efforts for individuals lacking legal status, while 38% oppose — a noticeable decline in support from previous polls (54-35% in December, 48-31% in February).

This shift, Spectrum News 1 observed, may reflect growing public fatigue with national immigration policy uncertainty, coupled with the practical pressures felt in local communities across the state.

As she eyes a second full term in 2026, Governor Hochul finds herself in a precarious yet competitive position. The Siena College poll, as highlighted by Spectrum News 1, shows that while she retains decent approval ratings and a strong position among Democrats, the broader public remains skeptical of her long-term leadership.

With potential Republican challengers such as Stefanik gaining traction and primary rivals waiting in the wings, Hochul will need to expand her appeal beyond her party’s base—particularly among independents—to secure reelection.

In a state where political winds shift quickly and public trust is hard-won, the message from the latest poll is clear: Governor Hochul may be holding steady—for now—but the voters are watching, and many are eager for change.