Poll Shows Elise Stefanik Neck-and-Neck with Kathy Hochul in Potential Match-Up in NY Governor Race

By: Fern Sidman

In a stunning political development that could reshape the trajectory of New York’s 2026 gubernatorial race, a new poll reveals that Republican Congresswoman Elise Stefanik is in a statistical dead heat with incumbent Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul. According to polling data released by co/efficient and reported by VIN News, Stefanik trails Hochul by a razor-thin margin—43% to 42%—with a sizable 15% of likely voters still undecided.

Governor Hochul’s political standing appears increasingly precarious. As reported by VIN News, the poll shows her approval rating languishing at just 30%, while a staggering 57% of voters disapprove of the job she is doing. Even more troubling for the incumbent: only 23% of respondents believe she deserves to be re-elected.

By contrast, President Trump holds a 44% favorability rating among New York voters—an eyebrow-raising figure in a state that has traditionally leaned heavily Democratic. According to pollster Ryan Munce, who spoke with VIN News, this surge in Trump’s popularity—particularly among independent and male voters—may be having a “coattail effect,” lifting GOP candidates like Stefanik across the board.

“This poll shows how dramatically the political landscape is shifting in New York,” Munce noted. “Governor Hochul is suffering from deep discontent across a wide swath of voters, while Stefanik is gaining traction at precisely the right time.”

The poll also sheds light on the 2026 Republican primary landscape—and Stefanik is dominating it. As detailed in the VIN News report, the Congresswoman commands a commanding 56% of support among likely GOP voters. Her closest rivals—Rep. Mike Lawler and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman—trail distantly at 9% and 8% respectively.

This overwhelming lead within her party indicates that Stefanik would face little resistance securing the Republican nomination should she decide to enter the race formally. Her statewide recognition, bolstered by her role as House Republican Conference Chair and vocal support for Trump, has made her a formidable contender in an increasingly competitive blue-state battlefield.

While Stefanik’s favorability rating sits at 34% (with 32% viewing her unfavorably and another 34% undecided or unfamiliar), those numbers are notably stronger than Hochul’s. The large percentage of undecided or unfamiliar voters also suggests ample room for Stefanik to expand her appeal as the election cycle progresses.

Governor Hochul’s campaign, however, was quick to dismiss the poll results, branding Stefanik as “divisive.” In comments highlighted in the VIN News report, Hochul’s team insisted they remain confident in victory should Stefanik officially challenge the governor in 2026. Still, the aggressive tone of their response may indicate concern over the incumbent’s political footing.

“It’s clear that Elise Stefanik represents an extreme MAGA agenda that New Yorkers have repeatedly rejected,” a Hochul spokesperson said. “Governor Hochul is focused on delivering results, not political games.”

But as the VIN News report pointed out, this narrative may not be resonating with voters the way it once did. With the state’s economic challenges, crime concerns, and dissatisfaction with COVID-era policies still fresh in the public’s mind, the appetite for change could prove stronger than Democratic talking points.

The poll’s most striking revelation is the extent to which a Republican—especially one aligned closely with Donald Trump—can now compete in deep-blue New York. Elise Stefanik’s strength, as reported by VIN News, lies in her ability to consolidate the GOP base while making significant inroads with moderates and independents disillusioned with the status quo.

If the trends continue, the 2026 gubernatorial race could become one of the most consequential contests in the nation, testing whether a new brand of Republicanism can break through in traditionally liberal strongholds.

For Governor Hochul, the road to re-election now appears far more uncertain. And for Elise Stefanik, the momentum is building—not only for a historic run in New York but possibly for a larger national role within the Republican Party.